Before we start the dictionary defines a forecast as:-
Verb: forecast; predict or estimate (a future event or trend).
Noun: forecast; a calculation or estimate of future events based on past events, especially coming weather or a financial trend.
It’s easy to make a forecast. “I reckon my footy team the crows will play in the Grand Final this year!” Every day people from all walks of life make all sorts of predictions. “It’s going to rain today.” “Trump will never build that wall.” And “of course the Property Market is going to Crash….”
But it’s actually very difficult to make a Non-Emotional Scientifically Based Prediction. It’s even harder to get it right!
However, every year that’s exactly what we do. Do we always get it right? Unfortunately, No. But the statistical probability of getting it correct as often as we do is, is almost impossible!
Each year in May and November we hold our Calnan Flack Forecasting Conferences where we not only make our forecasts publicly but we also scrutinise our previous market calls.
There is nothing that irks me more than Economic Experts who make financial predictions that they are NOT held accountable for. I’m not saying that every forecast must be correct, that unrealistic, but it is important that if you are going to make a prediction to take responsibility for what you have said, particularly when it involves other people’s hard-earned savings.
It particularly annoys me that many online publishers provide daily market commentaries that contradict each other. They regularly predict the market is going up and down on the same day and then gloat about getting it right in future advertising.
Photo by Lukas Blazek on Unsplash
We are proudly accountable for our predictions.
We know how accurate they are.
We know that we have an unfair advantage when we make financial predictions – the advantage is that we have a scientific based repeatable process. We know that we will be more accurate than our peers because we have a repeatable methodology.
At our next Calnan Flack Investment Club (Melbourne) on the 1st of August we will be joined by our good friend Phil Anderson. Phil is an economic genius and cycle expert. He is one of the very few people who predicted the GFC before the event. He is one of the very few who predicted the GFC that haven’t predicted a crash every year and continue to do so!
Like us, Phil’s predictions are based upon a definable and repeatable process that form a key component of our analysis.
We also have a long and accurate history of many financial predictions that include:
- In November 2015, we said the Nasdaq would provide good opportunities once it previous top was broken.
- Calling for continual lower interest rates since February 2014.
- In November 2016, we said the Dow is highly likely to reverse on the given dates 4th of Nov 2016, 19th of Jan 2017, 6th of Mar 2017, 2nd of Jun 2017 and 19th of Jun 2017.
- Calling the Indian Stock exchange as the most tradable market for the year ahead in February 2014.
- Here is the full forecast we provided for the All Ords in November 2015
At the 1st August Investment Club, we will be providing you with a sneak peek at what we will do in November. We will be providing some expectations as to how we think the All Ords will unfold, I might even provide some probable reversal dates for some well-known Australian Stocks.
Phil will discuss his insights into how the current Economic Cycle is unfolding. Phil believes there are significant investment opportunities arising as the cycle progresses and will share this information with us. Phil has spent the last 3 months in Singapore, Malaysia, the UK and France and his observations are always enlightening.
We would love to have you and your friends along.
Bookings are essential
If you’re interested in attending our November Forecasting Conference
And remember, “Trade the Market NOT the Forecast”