1987’s Black Monday, but what did we learn?

1987’S BLACK MONDAY, BUT WHAT DID WE LEARN? It was the stuff movies are made of. White knuckled brokers frantically screaming “Sell, Sell, Sell” – desperately seeking any offer they could. The problem was, there was no one willing to take the other side – not even a whimper of a “buy”. The tsunami of selling wiped a staggering 25% or $65B off the Australian Stock Market in one day. Stunned stockbrokers just stopped answering phones amidst the chaos that surrounded them. It was the era of the corporate raider. The quintessential Fat Cats, riding high and flushed with cash. Borrowed loot – anyone’s cash but their own. Christopher Skase had bloated Qintex. Rodney Adler was wrecking FAI Insurance and Bond had the trifecta, the Americas Cup, Cash and his memory……. Both […] 150

Our Forecasting Record

OUR FORECASTING RECORD Before we start the dictionary defines a forecast as:- Verb: forecast; predict or estimate (a future event or trend). Noun: forecast; a calculation or estimate of future events based on past events, especially coming weather or a financial trend. It’s easy to make a forecast. “I reckon my footy team the crows will play in the Grand Final this year!” Every day people from all walks of life make all sorts of predictions. “It’s going to rain today.” “Trump will never build that wall.” And “of course the Property Market is going to Crash….” But it’s actually very difficult to make a Non-Emotional Scientifically Based Prediction. It’s even harder to get it right! However, every year that’s exactly what we do. Do we always get it right? Unfortunately, No. But the statistical probability of getting it correct as often as we […] 150