Geniuses Wipe Out Investment Funds

GENIUSES WIPE OUT INVESTMENT FUNDS One of my very first trades was a classic buy high and sell lower scenario. It was one of those defining moments that is forever etched into my memory and the lessons learned remain strong. Back when I was starting out investing (read gambling there), I decided to buy a small mining stock Helix (HLX) on the basis of, well Greg the computer guy – he gave me the inside word. Yes, I thought I was a genius and was going to make a bucket of bills – ten-fold my money was the plan! But you no doubt already know the end to this story and the subsequent lessons learned. As you can appreciate, I took a beating the day I sold, both emotionally and financially, despite it being a small loss in the […] 150

Investor Memory

INVESTOR MEMORY I read an interesting article recently about Volkswagen. Did you know that this German brand is ahead of all other non-luxury brands in relation to customer retention rates? According to a recent Roy Morgan Automotive Currency Report, 61.5 per cent of Volkswagen owners said their next car purchase would again be a Volkswagen. This is surprising especially when compared with the way “Real Ozzies” have ditched our iconic Holdens! Remember those ads “Football, Meat Pies, Kangaroos and Holden Cars!” Clearly times have changed in many ways however this commercial shows how entrenched the Holden was in Australia culture. How is it that a European car company, that lied to us over the Dieselgate emissions scandal in September 2015, has retained this brand loyalty? Now don’t think that I’m trying to start some sort of Australian v European trade war here – as a family we actually own […] 150
By | 2018-11-23T11:15:29+00:00 November 1st, 2018|Equities, Shares|0 Comments

Investing with Fear

INVESTING WITH FEAR Some say that wolves can smell fear. It might really be that they sense it. Regardless, once a pack of wolves think they have the upper hand their aggression levels increase often resulting in a frenzied attack. Their relentless attack further enhancing the fear of their pray. Remind you of something? “$50 billion wiped off Australian Markets” “US stocks suffer worst loss in eight months, Australian market tipped to plunge” “Panic grips markets; ASX set to extend losses” These falls invoke our primal animal instincts. Such volatility is where the share market gets its bad boy reputation from. Unlike Queensland’s famous slogan “Beautiful one day. Perfect the next” it would be more apt for the ASX to use “Up one day. Smashed the next”. Investing has as much […] 150
By | 2018-10-12T17:07:07+00:00 October 12th, 2018|Equities, Shares|0 Comments

Pinpointing The Mid-Cycle – Tulips, Hyacinths and 2021

PINPOINTING THE MID-CYCLE – TULIPS, HYACINTHS AND 2021 What do Tulips, Hyacinths and 2021 all have in common? Sounds like the start to some sort of a really bad “Dad Joke”…. But as investors, I’m deadly serious when I ask you this question? The Tulip Mania of 1637 is well documented. But what is the link to Hyacinths and 2021? Studying, researching and most importantly learning from history gives us a huge edge with our investing – and this is exactly what Phil Anderson will be presenting on at our Forecasting Conference this November. Phil will be presenting on both the Saturday and Sunday. Phil’s presentation “Tulips, Hyacinths and 2021” will link the Tulip Mania, the Hyacinths Boom and Collapse as well as several other long […] 150
By | 2018-10-10T17:43:34+00:00 October 10th, 2018|Equities, Shares|0 Comments

The Sharing revolution

THE SHARING REVOLUTION Sometimes we are asked “Why write so many articles about new technology.  Aren’t you an investment business” Well yes, we most certainly are an investment business, but one that is a little different. You see there are two basic reasons we talk so much about technology because it’s a VERY important driver of productivity – which in turn directly leads to increased profitability and increased capital growth. But we continually hear that this time it is different? However, understanding how technology evolves can help you realise that this time it’s not so different and in fact things are not so bad or different after all. I love watching old movies. And when I say old, I mean anything from a year to 100 years old. Remember Charlie Chaplin signed a contract in 1913 with Keystone Studios for $150 a week! […] 150
By | 2018-10-05T16:07:47+00:00 October 5th, 2018|Equities, Shares|0 Comments

45 Years in Wall Street

45 YEARS IN WALL STREET My copy of WD Gann’s “45 Years in Wall Street” was written in 1949. It could almost pass as a first edition, some 69 years old, it’s that beaten up and tattered. But I find this a really interesting title that warrants investigation! It is well accepted Gann was meticulous with numbers and dates. Further, he says he began his career as a stock broker in 1902. Now I’m no mathematician, but I reckon 1902 to 1949 is 47 years, and NOT 45? So why title the book 45 years in Wall Street? There is another obvious error in 45 Years in Wall Street. He rounds the low trading price of the Dow Jones. It’s the ONLY place I’ve ever seen him round a figure. This is NOT typical Gann. Nowhere in his other works does […] 150
By | 2018-10-02T20:13:13+00:00 October 2nd, 2018|Equities, Shares|0 Comments

1987’s Black Monday, but what did we learn?

1987’S BLACK MONDAY, BUT WHAT DID WE LEARN? It was the stuff movies are made of. White knuckled brokers frantically screaming “Sell, Sell, Sell” – desperately seeking any offer they could. The problem was, there was no one willing to take the other side – not even a whimper of a “buy”. The tsunami of selling wiped a staggering 25% or $65B off the Australian Stock Market in one day. Stunned stockbrokers just stopped answering phones amidst the chaos that surrounded them. It was the era of the corporate raider. The quintessential Fat Cats, riding high and flushed with cash. Borrowed loot – anyone’s cash but their own. Christopher Skase had bloated Qintex. Rodney Adler was wrecking FAI Insurance and Bond had the trifecta, the Americas Cup, Cash and his memory……. Both […] 150

‘I Read the News Today, Oh Boy?’

‘I READ THE NEWS TODAY, OH BOY?’ It was the Beatles who sang “I read the news today, oh boy” – so have you? CBA are all over it. Money laundering! Can you believe it? It’s hard to imagine after all the bad press they had re their financial planning and insurance division that things could get any worse? But now we hear that the CBA has facilitated the transfer of millions of dollars for a wide web of criminal syndicates. These foreign criminals and drug traffickers launder literally millions through Australias biggest and highly regulated bank – the Commonwealth Bank. AUSTRAC (the Australian Transaction Reports and Analysis Centre has alleged in excess of 50,000 contraventions since 2012 of Australias Anti-Money Laundering and Counter-Terrorism Financing Act 2006. Interestingly enough, it is thought that the CBA’s rollout of its […] 150
By | 2018-09-21T13:15:36+00:00 August 8th, 2017|Education, Shares|0 Comments

Our Forecasting Record

OUR FORECASTING RECORD Before we start the dictionary defines a forecast as:- Verb: forecast; predict or estimate (a future event or trend). Noun: forecast; a calculation or estimate of future events based on past events, especially coming weather or a financial trend. It’s easy to make a forecast. “I reckon my footy team the crows will play in the Grand Final this year!” Every day people from all walks of life make all sorts of predictions. “It’s going to rain today.” “Trump will never build that wall.” And “of course the Property Market is going to Crash….” But it’s actually very difficult to make a Non-Emotional Scientifically Based Prediction. It’s even harder to get it right! However, every year that’s exactly what we do. Do we always get it right? Unfortunately, No. But the statistical probability of getting it correct as often as we […] 150

Long Live the Boom

LONG LIVE THE BOOM Do you remember when former President Barack Obama passed landmark banking laws in response to the catastrophic 2008 Global Financial Crash? The GFC decimated investment markets and cruelly destroyed millions of Americans dreams of home ownership and employment. So, Washington responded to ensure that this would never happen again.  Laws were passed to guarantee that America, that the world, would NEVER, EVER again face such a financial calamity, When Lehman Brothers went bust, it was a close call – it was the day that capitalism and our banking system nearly systemically failed. However, the developed western world breathed a collective sigh of relief, when finally, our elected representatives had our wayward capitalist system back under control. The legislatures had done their job and legislated the capitalist genie back into the bottle.   But that was then and this is now….. It is often said that “Time 150