Investor Memory

INVESTOR MEMORY I read an interesting article recently about Volkswagen. Did you know that this German brand is ahead of all other non-luxury brands in relation to customer retention rates? According to a recent Roy Morgan Automotive Currency Report, 61.5 per cent of Volkswagen owners said their next car purchase would again be a Volkswagen. This is surprising especially when compared with the way “Real Ozzies” have ditched our iconic Holdens! Remember those ads “Football, Meat Pies, Kangaroos and Holden Cars!” Clearly times have changed in many ways however this commercial shows how entrenched the Holden was in Australia culture. How is it that a European car company, that lied to us over the Dieselgate emissions scandal in September 2015, has retained this brand loyalty? Now don’t think that I’m trying to start some sort of Australian v European trade war here – as a family we actually own […] 150
By | 2018-11-01T18:08:34+00:00 November 1st, 2018|Equities, Shares|0 Comments

Investing with Fear

INVESTING WITH FEAR Some say that wolves can smell fear. It might really be that they sense it. Regardless, once a pack of wolves think they have the upper hand their aggression levels increase often resulting in a frenzied attack. Their relentless attack further enhancing the fear of their pray. Remind you of something? “$50 billion wiped off Australian Markets” “US stocks suffer worst loss in eight months, Australian market tipped to plunge” “Panic grips markets; ASX set to extend losses” These falls invoke our primal animal instincts. Such volatility is where the share market gets its bad boy reputation from. Unlike Queensland’s famous slogan “Beautiful one day. Perfect the next” it would be more apt for the ASX to use “Up one day. Smashed the next”. Investing has as much […] 150
By | 2018-10-12T17:07:07+00:00 October 12th, 2018|Equities, Shares|0 Comments

Pinpointing The Mid-Cycle – Tulips, Hyacinths and 2021

PINPOINTING THE MID-CYCLE – TULIPS, HYACINTHS AND 2021 What do Tulips, Hyacinths and 2021 all have in common? Sounds like the start to some sort of a really bad “Dad Joke”…. But as investors, I’m deadly serious when I ask you this question? The Tulip Mania of 1637 is well documented. But what is the link to Hyacinths and 2021? Studying, researching and most importantly learning from history gives us a huge edge with our investing – and this is exactly what Phil Anderson will be presenting on at our Forecasting Conference this November. Phil will be presenting on both the Saturday and Sunday. Phil’s presentation “Tulips, Hyacinths and 2021” will link the Tulip Mania, the Hyacinths Boom and Collapse as well as several other long […] 150
By | 2018-10-10T17:43:34+00:00 October 10th, 2018|Equities, Shares|0 Comments

The Sharing revolution

THE SHARING REVOLUTION Sometimes we are asked “Why write so many articles about new technology.  Aren’t you an investment business” Well yes, we most certainly are an investment business, but one that is a little different. You see there are two basic reasons we talk so much about technology because it’s a VERY important driver of productivity – which in turn directly leads to increased profitability and increased capital growth. But we continually hear that this time it is different? However, understanding how technology evolves can help you realise that this time it’s not so different and in fact things are not so bad or different after all. I love watching old movies. And when I say old, I mean anything from a year to 100 years old. Remember Charlie Chaplin signed a contract in 1913 with Keystone Studios for $150 a week! […] 150
By | 2018-10-05T16:07:47+00:00 October 5th, 2018|Equities, Shares|0 Comments

45 Years in Wall Street

45 YEARS IN WALL STREET My copy of WD Gann’s “45 Years in Wall Street” was written in 1949. It could almost pass as a first edition, some 69 years old, it’s that beaten up and tattered. But I find this a really interesting title that warrants investigation! It is well accepted Gann was meticulous with numbers and dates. Further, he says he began his career as a stock broker in 1902. Now I’m no mathematician, but I reckon 1902 to 1949 is 47 years, and NOT 45? So why title the book 45 years in Wall Street? There is another obvious error in 45 Years in Wall Street. He rounds the low trading price of the Dow Jones. It’s the ONLY place I’ve ever seen him round a figure. This is NOT typical Gann. Nowhere in his other works does […] 150
By | 2018-10-02T20:13:13+00:00 October 2nd, 2018|Equities, Shares|0 Comments

Our Audited Track Record

OUR AUDITED TRACK RECORD The end of the Financial Year is a natural time to review the Calnan Flack Australian Share Fund. So how did we perform? Well we are pleased to inform a return of 18.64%pa*. This follows the 17.24% return for the first year of the fund from inception. See our blog 17.24% Return for the last 12 Months  We smashed our benchmarks, the Morningstar Multi-Sector Growth Market Index and the All Ords Accumulation Index – so we are very pleased with the funds performance! We do need to be VERY careful about placing too much emphasis on short-term returns, in fact ASIC reminds us that “past performance is no guarantee of future performance” however, we think it’s still important that […] 150
By | 2018-09-21T11:09:25+00:00 July 24th, 2018|Equities|1 Comment

Bubble Economics!

BUBBLE ECONOMICS! When testifying before Congress Allan Greenspan famously said “Bubbles generally are perceptible only after the fact. To spot a bubble in advance requires a judgment that hundreds of thousands of informed investors have it all wrong. Betting against markets is usually precarious at best.” How do you spot a bubble while it’s occurring? It’s a little daunting if the world’s most celebrated central banker says it’s very difficult if not near impossible to do. But you need to remember that Greenspan is the King of Bubble Economics as William A. Fleckenstein wrote in his book Greenspan’s Bubbles: The Age of Ignorance at the Federal Reserve, “Greenspan bailed out the world’s largest equity bubble with the world’s largest real estate bubble.” You see in the above quote from the Bubble King himself, he refers to “hundreds of thousands of informed investors”. But informed investors […] 150
By | 2018-09-21T12:10:43+00:00 January 31st, 2018|Equities, General|1 Comment

1987’s Black Monday, but what did we learn?

1987’S BLACK MONDAY, BUT WHAT DID WE LEARN? It was the stuff movies are made of. White knuckled brokers frantically screaming “Sell, Sell, Sell” – desperately seeking any offer they could. The problem was, there was no one willing to take the other side – not even a whimper of a “buy”. The tsunami of selling wiped a staggering 25% or $65B off the Australian Stock Market in one day. Stunned stockbrokers just stopped answering phones amidst the chaos that surrounded them. It was the era of the corporate raider. The quintessential Fat Cats, riding high and flushed with cash. Borrowed loot – anyone’s cash but their own. Christopher Skase had bloated Qintex. Rodney Adler was wrecking FAI Insurance and Bond had the trifecta, the Americas Cup, Cash and his memory……. Both […] 150

Crypto’s Devil wears Prada

CRYPTO’S DEVIL WEARS PRADA Since the GFC exploded with a massive BANG there has been endless apportioning of blame. The US Congress passed laws, The UK spat its financial chewie leaving the EU and taking its financial might with it. ASIC went on a rampage issuing Enforceable Undertakings and Bans wherever it could. And so the list goes on. Such actions are fairly and squarely aimed at a metaphoric horse that has not only bolted, but run so far it’s tired, stopped and had a drink and is now looking for a rest. A question that is rarely discussed or even raised is who invented these financial instruments of mass destruction and could it happen again. (OK so we have asked and answered the second question many times but work with me here…) So let me introduce you to Blythe Masters AKA the […] 150
By | 2018-09-21T12:23:49+00:00 October 16th, 2017|Cycles, Equities|0 Comments

Australian Share Market says BUY

AUSTRALIAN SHARE MARKET SAYS BUY! It’s unusual for markets to stay stagnant for long. It’s one of the great things about stock markets, they are in a continual state of flux, always moving, always creating opportunities. That is until they aren’t….. The All Ordinaries has been as still as a statue! Having been caught in a price range of less than 200 points for the last 5 months. It’s almost as if rigor mortis has set in – and it had the stench of slime from a dormant pond! This is very unusual price action indeed. You see it lulls investors into a false sense of “New Normal”. It desensitises them from the natural volatility of the market. But just like the Beast can’t hibernate forever, markets can NOT continue to move in such a benign manner endlessly… And so the Beast stirs… SO […] 150
By | 2018-09-21T12:26:25+00:00 October 13th, 2017|Cycles, Equities|0 Comments