Our Audited Track Record

OUR AUDITED TRACK RECORD The end of the Financial Year is a natural time to review the Calnan Flack Australian Share Fund. So how did we perform? Well we are pleased to inform a return of 18.64%pa*. This follows the 17.24% return for the first year of the fund from inception. See our blog 17.24% Return for the last 12 Months  We smashed our benchmarks, the Morningstar Multi-Sector Growth Market Index and the All Ords Accumulation Index – so we are very pleased with the funds performance! We do need to be VERY careful about placing too much emphasis on short-term returns, in fact ASIC reminds us that “past performance is no guarantee of future performance” however, we think it’s still important that […] 150
By | 2018-09-21T11:09:25+00:00 July 24th, 2018|Equities|1 Comment

Bubble Economics!

BUBBLE ECONOMICS! When testifying before Congress Allan Greenspan famously said “Bubbles generally are perceptible only after the fact. To spot a bubble in advance requires a judgment that hundreds of thousands of informed investors have it all wrong. Betting against markets is usually precarious at best.” How do you spot a bubble while it’s occurring? It’s a little daunting if the world’s most celebrated central banker says it’s very difficult if not near impossible to do. But you need to remember that Greenspan is the King of Bubble Economics as William A. Fleckenstein wrote in his book Greenspan’s Bubbles: The Age of Ignorance at the Federal Reserve, “Greenspan bailed out the world’s largest equity bubble with the world’s largest real estate bubble.” You see in the above quote from the Bubble King himself, he refers to “hundreds of thousands of informed investors”. But informed investors […] 150
By | 2018-09-21T12:10:43+00:00 January 31st, 2018|Equities, General|1 Comment

1987’s Black Monday, but what did we learn?

1987’S BLACK MONDAY, BUT WHAT DID WE LEARN? It was the stuff movies are made of. White knuckled brokers frantically screaming “Sell, Sell, Sell” – desperately seeking any offer they could. The problem was, there was no one willing to take the other side – not even a whimper of a “buy”. The tsunami of selling wiped a staggering 25% or $65B off the Australian Stock Market in one day. Stunned stockbrokers just stopped answering phones amidst the chaos that surrounded them. It was the era of the corporate raider. The quintessential Fat Cats, riding high and flushed with cash. Borrowed loot – anyone’s cash but their own. Christopher Skase had bloated Qintex. Rodney Adler was wrecking FAI Insurance and Bond had the trifecta, the Americas Cup, Cash and his memory……. Both […] 150

Crypto’s Devil wears Prada

CRYPTO’S DEVIL WEARS PRADA Since the GFC exploded with a massive BANG there has been endless apportioning of blame. The US Congress passed laws, The UK spat its financial chewie leaving the EU and taking its financial might with it. ASIC went on a rampage issuing Enforceable Undertakings and Bans wherever it could. And so the list goes on. Such actions are fairly and squarely aimed at a metaphoric horse that has not only bolted, but run so far it’s tired, stopped and had a drink and is now looking for a rest. A question that is rarely discussed or even raised is who invented these financial instruments of mass destruction and could it happen again. (OK so we have asked and answered the second question many times but work with me here…) So let me introduce you to Blythe Masters AKA the […] 150
By | 2018-09-21T12:23:49+00:00 October 16th, 2017|Cycles, Equities|0 Comments

Australian Share Market says BUY

AUSTRALIAN SHARE MARKET SAYS BUY! It’s unusual for markets to stay stagnant for long. It’s one of the great things about stock markets, they are in a continual state of flux, always moving, always creating opportunities. That is until they aren’t….. The All Ordinaries has been as still as a statue! Having been caught in a price range of less than 200 points for the last 5 months. It’s almost as if rigor mortis has set in – and it had the stench of slime from a dormant pond! This is very unusual price action indeed. You see it lulls investors into a false sense of “New Normal”. It desensitises them from the natural volatility of the market. But just like the Beast can’t hibernate forever, markets can NOT continue to move in such a benign manner endlessly… And so the Beast stirs… SO […] 150
By | 2018-09-21T12:26:25+00:00 October 13th, 2017|Cycles, Equities|0 Comments

The Most Important Blog of the Year!

THE MOST IMPORTANT BLOG OF THE YEAR! We all have a choice – we can work harder or we can have our money work harder? SIMPLE CHOICE! The rich are NOT richer because they work harder. They are smarter? They are rich because they get their money working hard for them. Everything we do at Calnan Flack is based around the Investment Cycle and the Effortless Advantage – about helping investors like you maximise their economic outcomes. At Calnan Flack we are constantly frustrated that investors continue to work long hours, toiling hard for wages, trying to achieve a sound financial future for their families. Its harsh really – forgoing in excess of 2,000 hours a year from your family, friends and leisure activities. All to go to WORK! And why are you going to work? Its crazy, you spend +2,000 hrs a year at work yet can’t afford the 150

It’s One for the Money

IT’S ONE FOR THE MONEY For every Boom there is a Crash. History tells us that the higher prices fly, the greater the crash will be. Its inevitable, isn’t it? The more emotional investing becomes the more irrational the pricing. There is an old saying that when “Taxi drivers start recommending stocks it is time to sell” Welcome the new world of Cryptocurrencies, with BitCoin the biggest and boldest of them all. Bitcoin invented by an unknow person or persons, calling themselves Satoshi Nakamoto, is an open-source currency and digital payment system. It is a Peer-to-Peer network with transactions taking place directly without an intermediary like a Bank, PayPal or Western Union. Transactions are recorded in a publicly distributed ledger called blockchain. According to Jon Peddie of Jon Peddie Research “People are sending Bitcoins to each other over the Bitcoin network all the […] 150
By | 2018-09-21T13:07:13+00:00 September 8th, 2017|Cycles, Equities|0 Comments

There is NO housing Bubble (YET!)

THERE IS NO HOUSING BUBBLE (YET!) S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices and the news is ALL good! Prices are up! (a 5.5% gain) The default rate on mortgages are still low with household debt at manageable levels. The demand for housing continues to exceed supply and the banks are happily extending more and more credit. We are told that the demand for housing is currently outstripping supply and inventory levels are very low.   But reading the analysis, reproduced below, has me scratching my head. NO mention of the drivers? No mention of technological advancements, the improvements in profitability, the continual enhancement of infrastructure, population growth and changing household demographics. The only mention of credit is the throw-away comment that “financing is available”….. Please understand the “The Effortless Advantage” as defined by classical economist David Ricardo. It explains how our 150

The Emotional Investor

THE EMOTIONAL INVESTOR Economics tell us that, or assumes, that individuals (which includes investors) act in a rational manner – that they are fully informed and make logical, sensible decisions. The news of Altair Asset Management returning investor funds at an “overvalued and dangerous time in this cycle” sent a quiver through the investment community. Has this ever been done before? A fund manager, who by definition makes his living by managing funds, emphatically saying to investors the market is cooked and I can’t manufacture any further returns for you. See: https://www.businessinsider.com.au/the-4-reasons-this-fund-manager-cashed-in-all-his-australian-shares-2017-6 Then this was followed up by the Australian Treasurer Scott Morrison terrifying markets with the dire warning of over Australia’s GDP growth forecasts. http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/treasurer-scott-morrison-sounds-warning-over-economic-growth-in-march-quarter-20170601-gwhud2.html And then the barrage of Doomsayers started warning us of a property crash, another recession, interest rate rises, the systemic issues […] 150


EXPECTATIONS One of the key challenges to successful investing is managing and dealing with the emotions of our expected returns. We all have this unrealistic expectation that we will learn to forecast and trade the market and then never make another loss. The Holy Grail of investing. Perfection in our investment decisions. But this is the real world and the markets have a very frustrating way of sometimes making us look like fools. Worse than that, at times it can take our money! Sorry folks – that’s investing! We make no guarantees that we or anyone else will not invest without at times getting it wrong. The key is that it doesn’t stop us from approaching the markets with a game plan. We know that the Calnan Flack Economic Cycle Action Plan will guide us through the cycle. It tells us what to expect and what action to take. The 150
By | 2018-09-21T15:19:54+00:00 February 20th, 2016|Equities|0 Comments