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So far Jeremy Calnan & Ian Flack Calnan Flack has created 110 blog entries.

The History of the Future

THE HISTORY OF THE FUTURE The History of the Future – sounds like some sort of oxymoron doesn’t it? Bit like the title to my favourite movie “Back to the Future”. We say that the Cycle must repeat over and over again while the 5 Drivers of the Economy remain in place. We also know that these drivers have been in place for hundreds if not thousands of years. These Economic drivers are built into the DNA of our economic system. The role of the speculator can NOT be understated. However, the speculators go back much further than 1980’s Wall Street’s Gordon Gekko or even Jessie Livermore from the 1930’s or JP Morgan who saved Wall Street back in 1907…… No, let’s go back to Mesopotamia 1750BC and the sixth king of Babylon – Hammurabi. […] 150

A Giant Step in Lunar Tourism

A GIANT STEP IN LUNAR TOURISM When you think about it, we’ve sent some weird stuff into space. Dogs, chimpanzees, cheese wheels, robots and even astronauts. But earlier this month serial entrepreneur and media tart Elon Musk, sent one of his beloved Tesla Roadsters into space! It’s OK, it was being driven by a mannequin called Starman and I’m sure he had his space license? See Musk was out to make a point – that his company’s SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy was safe and had a bigger payload than a Toyota Hilux. Since its inception in 2002, Musk’s SpaceX program has blazed a path of unheralded success, leaving in its wake a trail of historic events, the latest of which demonstrated his ownership of the most powerful operating rockets on the planet. And what’s the final goal again? “To enable people to live on other […] 150
By | 2018-09-21T11:48:39+00:00 March 3rd, 2018|Cycles|0 Comments

End of the Horse

END OF THE HORSE In 1900 it was completely inconceivable as to how the automobile would change society. Who could have predicted the speed at which we moved from the horse and cart to the car? The picture below is Fifth Avenue in New York City in 1900. It’s a photo of elegant buildings, a crowded sidewalk and an orderly street awash with Horse and Carts. This was how life was. Everything that moved in and out of a city C1900 did so by foot or by horse and cart. People, food, waste, books, clothes, pots, pans and anything else required to make a city function. When you think about it in these terms it makes you realise the profound impact that the four-wheeled revolution had. This radical contraption completely revolutionised not only how you lived in a city, but the whole context of how it […] 150
By | 2018-09-21T12:05:50+00:00 February 28th, 2018|Cycles, Education|0 Comments

A Modern Twist on the Cantillon Effect

A MODERN TWIST ON THE CANTILLON EFFECT “Same, Same, but different”.  That’s how we often describe the cycle. You see if the cycle repeated exactly the same every time, it would be easy for everyone to see it. The markets just cannot allow this to happen. The market must do whatever it can to fool most of the people, most of the time. New legislation and different political agenda’s. Innovative financial products and solutions along with fresh social and moral standards. The latest world and geopolitical tensions and of course investor memory and the herd mentality ensure this cycle can NOT mirror the last precisely. It’s the drivers that are important though – our all-important Five Underlying Drivers.  If the drivers are in place, then the cycle will find a way to manifest. The Cantillon Effect is understood by Architects and Developers, but somehow, […] 150

Bubble Economics!

BUBBLE ECONOMICS! When testifying before Congress Allan Greenspan famously said “Bubbles generally are perceptible only after the fact. To spot a bubble in advance requires a judgment that hundreds of thousands of informed investors have it all wrong. Betting against markets is usually precarious at best.” How do you spot a bubble while it’s occurring? It’s a little daunting if the world’s most celebrated central banker says it’s very difficult if not near impossible to do. But you need to remember that Greenspan is the King of Bubble Economics as William A. Fleckenstein wrote in his book Greenspan’s Bubbles: The Age of Ignorance at the Federal Reserve, “Greenspan bailed out the world’s largest equity bubble with the world’s largest real estate bubble.” You see in the above quote from the Bubble King himself, he refers to “hundreds of thousands of informed investors”. But informed investors […] 150
By | 2018-09-21T12:10:43+00:00 January 31st, 2018|Equities, General|1 Comment


OBIKE I love coming to Melbourne. Not only is it a chance for me to catch up with friends and investors at events such as the Calnan Flack Investment Club Meetings and Forecasting Conference, it’s also a fantastic city where the impact of the economic drivers are as plain as day for all to see. The social and economic impact of the ‘Free Inner-City Trams’ is evident by the sheer numbers of commuters using the service. It was only a few years ago that my now almost forgotten Myki Card was one of the first things I packed when coming across from Adelaide. It still amazes me how busy these trams are well into the night. In Adelaide catching any form of public transport is generally considered an individual sport, but catching a tram at 10pm at night (assuming you can find […] 150
By | 2018-09-21T12:12:22+00:00 January 18th, 2018|Cycles|1 Comment

What Big Teeth You Have

WHAT BIG TEETH YOU HAVE! It was Little Red Riding Hood who naively said “What Big Teeth You Have’ to the Big Bad Wolf. His response “All the better to eat you with’ has struck terror into the hearts of many a child. This same feeling of terror is currently being felt by many segments of society as technology bares its metaphoric “FAANGs”: Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google (now renamed Alphabet). It’s not just the older or less tech savvy people that are feeling the heat. Old business models are under pressure as the relentless technology gains are disrupting commerce. In 1997, Amazon’s letter to shareholders proudly included the following statement: “We established long-term relationships with many important strategic partners, including America Online, Yahoo!, Excite, Netscape, GeoCities, AltaVista, @Home, and Prodigy.” Now think about this for a moment. Think about these strategic partners. America […] 150
By | 2018-09-21T12:14:28+00:00 December 18th, 2017|Cycles, Education|0 Comments

Is Housing out for the Count?

IS HOUSING OUT FOR THE COUNT? CoreLogic data late last week sent headlines spinning. The announcement that Sydney house prices had declined 0.5% was a shock to all. This results in Sydney house prices growing by a miniscule 6.6%pa! Head of Research, Tim Lawless, called it a “significant turn of events”. But UBS economist George Tharenou saw it as much worse than that – proclaiming Australia’s housing boom is now “officially over”. “Australia’s world record housing boom is ‘officially’ over after a large ‘upswing’ of 6556% price growth in 55 years,” UBS economist George Tharenou. Now that’s a BIG statement. Sydney house prices have risen by over 70% since 2012 however, many are pointing to the material effects that APRA’s tightening regulation is having on the banks. Lawless went on to say: “Lenders have tightened their servicing […] 150

1987’s Black Monday, but what did we learn?

1987’S BLACK MONDAY, BUT WHAT DID WE LEARN? It was the stuff movies are made of. White knuckled brokers frantically screaming “Sell, Sell, Sell” – desperately seeking any offer they could. The problem was, there was no one willing to take the other side – not even a whimper of a “buy”. The tsunami of selling wiped a staggering 25% or $65B off the Australian Stock Market in one day. Stunned stockbrokers just stopped answering phones amidst the chaos that surrounded them. It was the era of the corporate raider. The quintessential Fat Cats, riding high and flushed with cash. Borrowed loot – anyone’s cash but their own. Christopher Skase had bloated Qintex. Rodney Adler was wrecking FAI Insurance and Bond had the trifecta, the Americas Cup, Cash and his memory……. Both […] 150

Why Brisbane? – Brisbane ‘Live’

WHY BRISBANE? – BRISBANE ‘LIVE’ Welcome to the seventh blog in our WHY BRISBANE series. NY’s Madison Square Garden is coming to Brisbane! Above the Roma Street rail lines, ‘Brisbane Live’ a $2B ultra-entertainment precinct will be Brisbane’s answer to Madison Square Garden. The center piece of the Brisbane Live plan is a new 17,000 seat world class arena where international superstars will perform and world sporting events will be held. The arena will be surrounded by multiplex cinemas, restaurants and bars as well as a spectacular 90 storey residential tower of 4,000 new apartments. Thousands of jobs will be created within this precinct and the flow on effect of Brisbane’s reputation will ultimately drive tourism to the city. The redevelopment concept for the whole of the Roma Street site is unique and truly a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. View the Brisbane Live Master […] 150