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So far Jeremy Calnan & Ian Flack Calnan Flack has created 97 blog entries.

A Modern Twist on the Cantillon Effect

“Same, Same, but different”.  That’s how we often describe the cycle. You see if the cycle repeated exactly the same every time, it would be easy for everyone to see it. The markets just cannot allow this to happen. The market must do whatever it can to fool most of the people, most of the time. New legislation and different political agenda’s. Innovative financial products and solutions along with fresh social and moral standards. The latest world and geopolitical tensions and of course investor memory and the herd mentality ensure this cycle can NOT mirror the last precisely. It’s the drivers that are important though – our all-important Five Underlying Drivers.  If the drivers are in place, then the cycle will find a way to manifest. The Cantillon Effect is understood by Architects and Developers, but somehow, Economists complete miss the point. It’s this theory that […] 150
By | 2018-02-13T09:50:00+00:00 February 12th, 2018|Cycles, Property|0 Comments

Bubble Economics!

When testifying before Congress Allan Greenspan famously said “Bubbles generally are perceptible only after the fact. To spot a bubble in advance requires a judgment that hundreds of thousands of informed investors have it all wrong. Betting against markets is usually precarious at best.” How do you spot a bubble while it’s occurring? It’s a little daunting if the world’s most celebrated central banker says it’s very difficult if not near impossible to do. But you need to remember that Greenspan is the King of Bubble Economics as William A. Fleckenstein wrote in his book Greenspan’s Bubbles: The Age of Ignorance at the Federal Reserve, “Greenspan bailed out the world’s largest equity bubble with the world’s largest real estate bubble.” You see in the above quote from the Bubble King himself, he refers to “hundreds of thousands of informed investors”. But informed investors can act in the […] 150
By | 2018-02-13T09:54:48+00:00 January 31st, 2018|Equities, General|0 Comments


I love coming to Melbourne. Not only is it a chance for me to catch up with friends and investors at events such as the Calnan Flack Investment Club Meetings and Forecasting Conference, it’s also a fantastic city where the impact of the economic drivers are as plain as day for all to see. The social and economic impact of the ‘Free Inner-City Trams’ is evident by the sheer numbers of commuters using the service. It was only a few years ago that my now almost forgotten Myki Card was one of the first things I packed when coming across from Adelaide. It still amazes me how busy these trams are well into the night. In Adelaide catching any form of public transport is generally considered an individual sport, but catching a tram at 10pm at night (assuming you can find one) is an […] 150
By | 2018-02-12T15:45:11+00:00 January 18th, 2018|Cycles|1 Comment

What Big Teeth You Have

It was Little Red Riding Hood who naively said “What Big Teeth You Have’ to the Big Bad Wolf. His response “All the better to eat you with’ has struck terror into the hearts of many a child. This same feeling of terror is currently being felt by many segments of society as technology bares its metaphoric “FAANGs”: Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google (now renamed Alphabet). It’s not just the older or less tech savvy people that are feeling the heat. Old business models are under pressure as the relentless technology gains are disrupting commerce. In 1997, Amazon’s letter to shareholders proudly included the following statement: “We established long-term relationships with many important strategic partners, including America Online, Yahoo!, Excite, Netscape, GeoCities, AltaVista, @Home, and Prodigy.” Now think about this for a moment. Think about these strategic partners. America Online Yahoo! Excite Netscape GeoCities AltaVista @Home […] 150
By | 2018-02-13T09:46:47+00:00 December 18th, 2017|Cycles, Education|0 Comments

Is Housing out for the Count?

CoreLogic data late last week sent headlines spinning. The announcement that Sydney house prices had declined 0.5% was a shock to all. This results in Sydney house prices growing by a miniscule 6.6%pa! Head of Research, Tim Lawless, called it a “significant turn of events”. But UBS economist George Tharenou saw it as much worse than that – proclaiming Australia’s housing boom is now “officially over”. “Australia’s world record housing boom is ‘officially’ over after a large ‘upswing’ of 6556% price growth in 55 years,” UBS economist George Tharenou. Now that’s a BIG statement. Sydney house prices have risen by over 70% since 2012 however, many are pointing to the material effects that APRA’s tightening regulation is having on the banks. Lawless went on to say: “Lenders have tightened their servicing tests and reduced their appetite for riskier loans, […] 150
By | 2018-02-13T09:31:45+00:00 November 9th, 2017|Cycles, Property|0 Comments

1987’s Black Monday, but what did we learn?

It was the stuff movies are made of. White knuckled brokers frantically screaming “Sell, Sell, Sell” – desperately seeking any offer they could. The problem was, there was no one willing to take the other side – not even a whimper of a “buy”. The tsunami of selling wiped a staggering 25% or $65B off the Australian Stock Market in one day. Stunned stockbrokers just stopped answering phones amidst the chaos that surrounded them. It was the era of the corporate raider. The quintessential Fat Cats, riding high and flushed with cash. Borrowed loot – anyone’s cash but their own. Christopher Skase had bloated Qintex. Rodney Adler was wrecking FAI Insurance and Bond had the trifecta, the Americas Cup, Cash and his memory……. Both the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 had lost more […] 150

Why Brisbane? – Brisbane ‘Live’

Welcome to the seventh blog in our WHY BRISBANE series. NY’s Madison Square Garden is coming to Brisbane! Above the Roma Street rail lines, ‘Brisbane Live’ a $2B ultra-entertainment precinct will be Brisbane’s answer to Madison Square Garden. The center piece of the Brisbane Live plan is a new 17,000 seat world class arena where international superstars will perform and world sporting events will be held. The arena will be surrounded by multiplex cinemas, restaurants and bars as well as a spectacular 90 storey residential tower of 4,000 new apartments. Thousands of jobs will be created within this precinct and the flow on effect of Brisbane’s reputation will ultimately drive tourism to the city. The redevelopment concept for the whole of the Roma Street site is unique and truly a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. View the Brisbane Live Master Plan 2 seats left to join […] 150

Crypto’s Devil wears Prada

Since the GFC exploded with a massive BANG there has been endless apportioning of blame. The US Congress passed laws, The UK spat its financial chewie leaving the EU and taking its financial might with it. ASIC went on a rampage issuing Enforceable Undertakings and Bans wherever it could. And so the list goes on. Such actions are fairly and squarely aimed at a metaphoric horse that has not only bolted, but run so far it’s tired, stopped and had a drink and is now looking for a rest. A question that is rarely discussed or even raised is who invented these financial instruments of mass destruction and could it happen again. (OK so we have asked and answered the second question many times but work with me here…) So let me introduce you to Blythe Masters AKA the “Devil in Prada”. Now please don’t take […] 150
By | 2018-02-13T09:58:22+00:00 October 16th, 2017|Cycles, Equities|0 Comments

Australian Share Market says BUY

It’s unusual for markets to stay stagnant for long. It’s one of the great things about stock markets, they are in a continual state of flux, always moving, always creating opportunities. That is until they aren’t….. The All Ordinaries has been as still as a statue! Having been caught in a price range of less than 200 points for the last 5 months. It’s almost as if rigor mortis has set in – and it had the stench of slime from a dormant pond! This is very unusual price action indeed. You see it lulls investors into a false sense of “New Normal”. It desensitises them from the natural volatility of the market. But just like the Beast can’t hibernate forever, markets can NOT continue to move in such a benign manner endlessly… And so the Beast stirs… SO WHATS NEXT? We are extremely bullish on the […] 150
By | 2018-02-13T10:07:13+00:00 October 13th, 2017|Cycles, Equities|0 Comments

Why Brisbane? – Howard Smith Wharves

Welcome to the sixth blog in our series of WHY BRISBANE A 3.43 hectare site including over 500m of ABSOLUTE RIVER FRONTAGE! Unparalleled views back over the beautiful city of Brisbane! The Howard Smith Wharves are the last remaining undeveloped parcel of waterfront land in the Brisbane CBD. The brief for this development was to re-energize this culturally important precinct. To connect the New Farm River walk with the CBD with both boardwalks and cycle paths and an energetic buzz of Brisbane lifestyle at its best. The heritage-listed buildings will be transformed into dining and retail venues, while the open public space will be revamped into areas for festivals and markets. Image Source: https://howardsmithwharves.com/the-plan/ Artists Impression  Artists Impression  150